AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$23.84

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 62.5¢

+18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,880

Combined PnL+$82.11

Over3 traders

Total Value$639.25

Total Shares1,482

Combined PnL-$58.27

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 55.4¢	$861.64	$886.27	+$24.63	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
us391	Underavg 50¢	$574.48	$631.48	+$57	51% 1712-1675 (3387)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$501.66	$448.01	-$53.65	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$259.45	$186.71	-$4.67	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
BE berlinskies<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$90.81	$97.5	+$0.49	58% 5891-4317 (10208)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$4.48	$4.53	+$0.05	53% 16119-14285 (30404)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$861.64

Value

$886.27

PnL

+$24.63

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

us391

Under

Invested

$574.48

Value

$631.48

PnL

+$57

Record

51%

1712-1675 (3387)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$501.66

Value

$448.01

PnL

-$53.65

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$259.45

Value

$186.71

PnL

-$4.67

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

berlinskies<$100

Under

Invested

$90.81

Value

$97.5

PnL

+$0.49

Record

58%

5891-4317 (10208)

CannaeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.