Celta Fortuna vs. Córdoba CF: O/U 5.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 93¢ · $183 held · ended Oct 31

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$182.77

Combined PnL

-$23.67

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 92.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$134.12

Total Shares145

Combined PnL-$0.4

Over2 traders

Total Value$48.66

Total Shares649

Combined PnL-$23.27

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 88¢	$70.4	$74	-$0.4	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 92.5¢	$60.12	$60.12	+$0	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 11.5¢	$62.92	$41.16	-$21.77	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$9	$7.5	-$1.5	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$70.4

Value

$74

PnL

-$0.4

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$60.12

Value

$60.12

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.92

Value

$41.16

PnL

-$21.77

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.