CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 1.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $346 held · ended Nov 2

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$345.72

Combined PnL

$8.95

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 100¢

+46% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$339.84

Total Shares400

Combined PnL+$41

Under2 traders

Total Value$5.88

Total Shares622

Combined PnL-$32.04

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 69¢	$495.24	$291.38	+$35.24	50% 26673-26580 (53253)
RN1<$100	Overavg 66¢	$64.71	$48.46	+$5.76	54% 58465-50687 (109152)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$22.22	$5.58	+$3.36	50% 34952-34399 (69351)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 31¢	$35.7	$0.3	-$35.4	58% 43911-31950 (75861)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$495.24

Value

$291.38

PnL

+$35.24

Record

50%

26673-26580 (53253)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$64.71

Value

$48.46

PnL

+$5.76

Record

54%

58465-50687 (109152)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.22

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$3.36

Record

50%

34952-34399 (69351)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$35.7

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$35.4

Record

58%

43911-31950 (75861)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.