Burgos CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 72¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
$7.7K
$215.28
68.7¢ → 71.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 68.7¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$123.03 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 68.7¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$113.44 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Overavg 31.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$5 | 47% 2572-2858 (5430) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | Overavg 31¢ | $185.98 | $162.5 | -$14.11 | 54% 4942-4170 (9112) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $44.37 | $44.37 | +$0 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $41.7 | $40.31 | -$2.09 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
Invested
$2,981.99
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$123.03
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
Invested
$2,799.67
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$113.44
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Invested
$1,580
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$5
Record
47%
2572-2858 (5430)
Invested
$185.98
Value
$162.5
PnL
-$14.11
Record
54%
4942-4170 (9112)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$44.37
Value
$44.37
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$41.7
Value
$40.31
PnL
-$2.09
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.