Burgos CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 51¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 14%
1 arb excluded
$10.2K
-$21.24
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 48.6¢ | $6.7K | $6.7K | +$38.21 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.6¢ | $4.1K | $4.3K | +$161.03 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52¢ | $2.6K | $2.4K | -$122.81 | |
 us391 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | +$20.22 | 51% 1711-1674 (3385) |
CA CannaeCTR | Overavg 50.9¢ | $786.96 | $776.47 | -$10.49 | 53% 16112-14276 (30388) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | Overavg 52¢ | $312 | $300 | -$15 | 54% 4942-4170 (9112) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $201.87 | $199.85 | -$2.02 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Overavg 52.6¢ | $145.59 | $138.5 | -$8.47 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 51¢ | $130.5 | $125.49 | -$3.76 | 58% 42662-31048 (73710) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 52.9¢ | $31.24 | $29.53 | -$1.71 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
Invested
$6,652.84
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$38.21
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
Both legs:
us391Invested
$1,970.15
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$20.22
Record
51%
1711-1674 (3385)
Invested
$786.96
Value
$776.47
PnL
-$10.49
Record
53%
16112-14276 (30388)
Invested
$312
Value
$300
PnL
-$15
Record
54%
4942-4170 (9112)
Invested
$201.87
Value
$199.85
PnL
-$2.02
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Invested
$145.59
Value
$138.5
PnL
-$8.47
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$130.5
Value
$125.49
PnL
-$3.76
Record
58%
42662-31048 (73710)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$31.24
Value
$29.53
PnL
-$1.71
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.