Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 3 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CD Castellón win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 38¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 1

Yes38¢No62¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$24.0K

Combined PnL

$775.26

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 37.5¢

-20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares26,811

Combined PnL+$139.02

No9 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares19,724

Combined PnL+$636.24

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 46.9¢	$12.4K	$12.7K	+$150.59	49% 168-175 (343)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 53¢	$4.3K	$5.0K	+$712.6	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
PL pltrkr111	Noavg 53¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$94.34	54% 733-618 (1351)
CA Cannae	Noavg 53¢	$639.19	$627.52	-$11.67	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 52.6¢	$426.68	$416.88	-$4.5	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Yesavg 47¢	$191.29	$191.29	-$10.17	50% 7127-7172 (14299)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 30.8¢	$38.64	$65.29	+$26.65	61% 13796-8679 (22475)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 53¢	$55.12	$54.08	-$1.04	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
RN1<$100	Noavg 42¢	$33.11	$41.04	+$7.92	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 68.5¢	$8.8	$7.4	-$1.4	58% 18786-13851 (32637)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 53¢	$5.3	$5.2	-$0.1	51% 1532-1483 (3015)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 39.5¢	$2.27	$2.99	+$0.72	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$12,386.88

Value

$12.7K

PnL

+$150.59

Record

49%

168-175 (343)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$4,309.03

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$712.6

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

pltrkr111

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$94.34

Record

54%

733-618 (1351)

Cannae

Invested

$639.19

Value

$627.52

PnL

-$11.67

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$426.68

Value

$416.88

PnL

-$4.5

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

Forecastication2CTR

Yes

Invested

$191.29

Value

$191.29

PnL

-$10.17

Record

50%

7127-7172 (14299)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$38.64

Value

$65.29

PnL

+$26.65

Record

61%

13796-8679 (22475)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$55.12

Value

$54.08

PnL

-$1.04

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

RN1<$100

Invested

$33.11

Value

$41.04

PnL

+$7.92

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.8

Value

$7.4

PnL

-$1.4

Record

58%

18786-13851 (32637)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.27

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$0.72

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.