Will Burgos CF win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 74¢ · $475 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$474.64
$0.22
74¢ → 74¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 74¢ | $278.63 | $278.63 | +$0 | 47% 2571-2857 (5428) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Noavg 74¢ | $148 | $148 | +$0 | 54% 4939-4170 (9109) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $40.76 | $40.99 | +$0.22 | 53% 16110-14274 (30384) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $7.03 | $7.03 | +$0 | 59% 46853-33124 (79977) |
Invested
$278.63
Value
$278.63
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2571-2857 (5428)
Invested
$148
Value
$148
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4939-4170 (9109)
Invested
$40.76
Value
$40.99
PnL
+$0.22
Record
53%
16110-14274 (30384)
Invested
$7.03
Value
$7.03
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
46853-33124 (79977)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.