Will CE Sabadell FC win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$2.0K
-$148.34
87.1¢ → 94.4¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 93.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$15.35 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 71¢ | $326.84 | $290.02 | -$36.83 | 47% 2521-2820 (5341) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $328.77 | $207.14 | -$121.64 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $41.18 | $36.54 | -$4.64 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $29.73 | $27.13 | -$2.6 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $6.67 | $8.51 | +$1.84 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $7.65 | $7.82 | +$0.17 | 61% 13722-8594 (22316) |
Invested
$1,364.5
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$15.35
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$326.84
Value
$290.02
PnL
-$36.83
Record
47%
2521-2820 (5341)
Invested
$328.77
Value
$207.14
PnL
-$121.64
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$41.18
Value
$36.54
PnL
-$4.64
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$29.73
Value
$27.13
PnL
-$2.6
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.67
Value
$8.51
PnL
+$1.84
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$7.65
Value
$7.82
PnL
+$0.17
Record
61%
13722-8594 (22316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.