Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-10-31?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 79¢ · $20K held · ended Oct 31

Yes79¢No21¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

-$328.87

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 78.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares17,110

Combined PnL-$653.32

No6 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares17,899

Combined PnL+$324.46

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 77.1¢	$8.1K	$8.0K	-$50.94	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 21¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$278.42	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 89¢	$4.2K	$3.6K	-$557.81	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR	Noavg 60.6¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$54.17	55% 1747-1441 (3188)
poshposh	Yesavg 86¢	$591.99	$595.43	+$3.44	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Noavg 14.8¢	$230	$333.07	+$103.07	67% 23351-11752 (35103)
└ No leg	Noavg 14.8¢	$160	$264.3	+$104.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76.9¢	$70	$68.77	-$1.23
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 39.3¢	$323.4	$315.85	-$7.55	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yesavg 77¢	$306.19	$304.2	-$1.99	48% 943-1015 (1958)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 39.2¢	$246.28	$238.76	-$7.52	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 86¢	$265.5	$229.56	-$35.94	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
RN1CTR	Noavg 22.1¢	$234.52	$227.81	-$6.71	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
LI Lilybaeum	Yesavg 74.3¢	$184.09	$189.61	+$5.53	61% 13722-8594 (22316)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$57.72	$57.76	+$0.04	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 76.3¢	$52.95	$52.36	-$0.59	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$24.97	$24.4	-$0.57	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 38.5¢	$3.85	$3.1	-$0.75	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$2	$1.9	-$0.1	51% 1460-1410 (2870)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$8,057.53

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$50.94

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$3,497.68

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$278.42

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$4,171.82

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$557.81

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR

Invested

$2,327.54

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$54.17

Record

55%

1747-1441 (3188)

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$591.99

Value

$595.43

PnL

+$3.44

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Invested

$230

Value

$333.07

PnL

+$103.07

Record

67%

23351-11752 (35103)

Both legs:

Invested

$323.4

Value

$315.85

PnL

-$7.55

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yes

Invested

$306.19

Value

$304.2

PnL

-$1.99

Record

48%

943-1015 (1958)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$246.28

Value

$238.76

PnL

-$7.52

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$265.5

Value

$229.56

PnL

-$35.94

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

RN1CTR

Invested

$234.52

Value

$227.81

PnL

-$6.71

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

Lilybaeum

Yes

Invested

$184.09

Value

$189.61

PnL

+$5.53

Record

61%

13722-8594 (22316)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.72

Value

$57.76

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.95

Value

$52.36

PnL

-$0.59

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$24.97

Value

$24.4

PnL

-$0.57

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.75

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1460-1410 (2870)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.