Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-11-01?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 57¢ · $151 held · ends Nov 1

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$150.9

Combined PnL

$2.09

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$121.55

Total Shares211

Combined PnL+$1.75

Yes1 trader

Total Value$29.35

Total Shares69

Combined PnL+$0.35

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 57¢	$99.42	$100.29	+$0.87	50% 25632-25461 (51093)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$69.07	$29.35	+$0.35	49% 253-262 (515)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 57¢	$13.86	$14.1	+$0.36	57% 29212-21600 (50812)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$15.4	$5.81	+$0.5	58% 42636-31031 (73667)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 57¢	$1.33	$1.35	+$0.01	53% 16110-14274 (30384)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$99.42

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$0.87

Record

50%

25632-25461 (51093)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.07

Value

$29.35

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

253-262 (515)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$13.86

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$0.36

Record

57%

29212-21600 (50812)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$15.4

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

42636-31031 (73667)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

16110-14274 (30384)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.