PEC Zwolle vs. ADO Den Haag: O/U 3.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$152.53
72.5¢ → 92¢
+27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 71.2¢ | $566.81 | $719.05 | +$152.23 | 54% 57141-49402 (106543) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 76.4¢ | $236.87 | $274.35 | +$37.48 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $90.13 | $104.71 | +$14.58 | 50% 11169-10980 (22149) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 72¢ | $49.68 | $59 | +$9.32 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 12.8¢ | $40.45 | $45.72 | +$5.27 | |
LA LaarsYCTR | Overavg 20¢ | $100 | $72.5 | -$27.5 | 51% 3435-3353 (6788) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 24.3¢ | $47.98 | $28.6 | -$19.39 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $21.62 | $25.81 | +$4.19 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 14.4¢ | $0.14 | $5.65 | +$5.52 | 48% 8937-9552 (18489) |
RN1Invested
$566.81
Value
$719.05
PnL
+$152.23
Record
54%
57141-49402 (106543)
Invested
$236.87
Value
$274.35
PnL
+$37.48
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Invested
$90.13
Value
$104.71
PnL
+$14.58
Record
50%
11169-10980 (22149)
Both legs:
Invested
$100
Value
$72.5
PnL
-$27.5
Record
51%
3435-3353 (6788)
Invested
$47.98
Value
$28.6
PnL
-$19.39
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$21.62
Value
$25.81
PnL
+$4.19
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$5.65
PnL
+$5.52
Record
48%
8937-9552 (18489)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.