PEC Zwolle vs. ADO Den Haag: O/U 2.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 77¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$522.87

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 76.5¢

+35% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,812

Combined PnL+$512.17

Over5 traders

Total Value$502.64

Total Shares1,360

Combined PnL+$10.7

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 55.6¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$440.05	59% 46876-33139 (80015)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 63.5¢	$493.68	$548.36	+$54.68	50% 25644-25471 (51115)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 41.3¢	$155.16	$207.88	+$52.72	50% 11169-10980 (22149)
LA LaarsYCTR	Overavg 32.9¢	$154.74	$138.71	-$16.03	51% 3435-3353 (6788)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Overavg 32.4¢	$149.3	$119.8	-$29.51	61% 13791-8664 (22455)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$77.04	$85.76	+$8.42	48% 8937-9552 (18489)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.5¢	$48.24	$59.36	+$11.12
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$28.8	$26.4	-$2.7
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 38¢	$16.97	$35.55	+$18.58	58% 42662-31048 (73710)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$25	$28	+$3	47% 4646-5167 (9813)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$7.81	$8.25	+$0.52	58% 10646-7629 (18275)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 67¢	$3.35	$2.2	-$1.15	53% 5597-5025 (10622)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,639.12

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$440.05

Record

59%

46876-33139 (80015)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$493.68

Value

$548.36

PnL

+$54.68

Record

50%

25644-25471 (51115)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$155.16

Value

$207.88

PnL

+$52.72

Record

50%

11169-10980 (22149)

LaarsYCTR

Over

Invested

$154.74

Value

$138.71

PnL

-$16.03

Record

51%

3435-3353 (6788)

LilybaeumCTR

Over

Invested

$149.3

Value

$119.8

PnL

-$29.51

Record

61%

13791-8664 (22455)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$77.04

Value

$85.76

PnL

+$8.42

Record

48%

8937-9552 (18489)

Both legs:

Over$48.2445.5¢+$11.12

Under$28.848¢-$2.7

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$16.97

Value

$35.55

PnL

+$18.58

Record

58%

42662-31048 (73710)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25

Value

$28

PnL

+$3

Record

47%

4646-5167 (9813)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.81

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$0.52

Record

58%

10646-7629 (18275)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.35

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$1.15

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.