Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (78%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
PEC Zwolle vs. ADO Den Haag: O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 23¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
2 arb excluded
$2.4K
$280.7
23.8¢ → 22.5¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $888.64 | $887.35 | +$60.8 | 54% 57141-49402 (106543) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 80¢ | $620.92 | $516.14 | -$42.69 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 24.2¢ | $267.72 | $371.21 | +$103.49 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 24.5¢ | $544.18 | $692.51 | +$148.33 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 22.8¢ | $372.06 | $512.95 | +$140.89 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $140.43 | $191.68 | +$51.25 | 50% 11169-10980 (22149) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 22¢ | $90.98 | $146.92 | +$55.94 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 71.3¢ | $49.45 | $44.76 | -$4.69 | |
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 78.3¢ | $131.22 | $124.59 | -$7.43 | 48% 8937-9552 (18489) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $26.06 | $24.89 | -$1.17 | 47% 4646-5167 (9813) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $4.05 | $3.9 | +$0.08 | 52% 7493-6786 (14279) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$888.64
Value
$887.35
PnL
+$60.8
Record
54%
57141-49402 (106543)
Both legs:
Invested
$544.18
Value
$692.51
PnL
+$148.33
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
Invested
$372.06
Value
$512.95
PnL
+$140.89
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Invested
$140.43
Value
$191.68
PnL
+$51.25
Record
50%
11169-10980 (22149)
Both legs:
Invested
$131.22
Value
$124.59
PnL
-$7.43
Record
48%
8937-9552 (18489)
Invested
$26.06
Value
$24.89
PnL
-$1.17
Record
47%
4646-5167 (9813)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$3.9
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
7493-6786 (14279)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.