Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
PEC Zwolle leading at halftime?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 0.1¢ · $6 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 100%
$6.11
$1.01
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 4.4¢ | $3.74 | $3.74 | -$3.7 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $25.7 | $1.71 | +$9.74 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $3.6 | $0.44 | -$3.6 | 42% 2257-3074 (5331) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $6.44 | $0.22 | -$1.44 | 85% 5875-1000 (6875) |
Invested
$3.74
Value
$3.74
PnL
-$3.7
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$25.7
Value
$1.71
PnL
+$9.74
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$0.44
PnL
-$3.6
Record
42%
2257-3074 (5331)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$6.44
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$1.44
Record
85%
5875-1000 (6875)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.