Will PEC Zwolle vs. ADO Den Haag end in a draw?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 78¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$86.27

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 77.5¢

+5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,278

Combined PnL+$87.12

Yes1 trader

Total Value$5.52

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$0.85

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 74¢	$950.62	$1.0K	+$12.85	53% 5694-5029 (10723)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 74¢	$580.33	$608.07	+$27.74	59% 46876-33139 (80015)
oieshfn345	Noavg 71.7¢	$412.08	$445.11	+$30.19	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
CA Cannae	Noavg 74¢	$162.32	$171.09	+$8.77	53% 16112-14276 (30388)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 78¢	$124.91	$124.11	-$0.8	50% 25644-25471 (51115)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$79.36	$84.34	+$5.52	57% 29224-21607 (50831)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 77¢	$73.92	$74.4	+$0.48	50% 11169-10980 (22149)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 77¢	$22.5	$22.68	+$0.18	61% 13791-8664 (22455)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$14.41	$16.12	+$1.92	48% 8937-9552 (18489)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.8¢	$6.37	$5.52	-$0.85	53% 5597-5025 (10622)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.88	+$0.27	54% 6424-5409 (11833)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$950.62

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$12.85

Record

53%

5694-5029 (10723)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$580.33

Value

$608.07

PnL

+$27.74

Record

59%

46876-33139 (80015)

oieshfn345

Invested

$412.08

Value

$445.11

PnL

+$30.19

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

Cannae

Invested

$162.32

Value

$171.09

PnL

+$8.77

Record

53%

16112-14276 (30388)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$124.91

Value

$124.11

PnL

-$0.8

Record

50%

25644-25471 (51115)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$79.36

Value

$84.34

PnL

+$5.52

Record

57%

29224-21607 (50831)

foooool<$100

Invested

$73.92

Value

$74.4

PnL

+$0.48

Record

50%

11169-10980 (22149)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.68

PnL

+$0.18

Record

61%

13791-8664 (22455)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$14.41

Value

$16.12

PnL

+$1.92

Record

48%

8937-9552 (18489)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.37

Value

$5.52

PnL

-$0.85

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0.27

Record

54%

6424-5409 (11833)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.