Will ADO Den Haag win on 2026-11-01?

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 1

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 94.5¢

+39% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares9,391

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares6,281

Combined PnL-$788.99

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Noavg 65.2¢	$4.1K	$5.8K	+$1.6K	49% 255-266 (521)
oieshfn345	Noavg 76¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$158.49	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 32.6¢	$1.2K	$902.13	-$272.67	59% 46876-33139 (80015)
FO foooool	Noavg 78.3¢	$300.76	$329.79	+$29.02	50% 11169-10980 (22149)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 65¢	$266.7	$277.22	+$21.06	58% 42662-31048 (73710)
CA Cannae	Noavg 65¢	$192.6	$271.11	+$69.63	53% 16112-14276 (30388)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 26.5¢	$672.17	$215.9	-$456.27	54% 57141-49402 (106543)
0xheavy888	Noavg 65¢	$130	$181.52	+$50.59	55% 7313-5881 (13194)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 86.5¢	$93.2	$102.27	+$2.72	48% 8937-9552 (18489)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$73.04	$56.44	-$16.6	49% 13009-13568 (26577)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$65.58	$47.65	-$17.93	50% 33838-33423 (67261)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.6¢	$37	$24.97	-$12.03	61% 13791-8664 (22455)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.7¢	$15.9	$11.37	-$4.53	53% 5597-5025 (10622)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.8	$4.58	+$1.63	58% 18782-13843 (32625)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$8.28	$1.53	-$6.75	62% 1191-722 (1913)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.5¢	$3.05	$0.85	-$2.2	54% 6424-5409 (11833)

Kyn008

Invested

$4,134.1

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

49%

255-266 (521)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,548.41

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$158.49

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,216.2

Value

$902.13

PnL

-$272.67

Record

59%

46876-33139 (80015)

foooool

Invested

$300.76

Value

$329.79

PnL

+$29.02

Record

50%

11169-10980 (22149)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$266.7

Value

$277.22

PnL

+$21.06

Record

58%

42662-31048 (73710)

Cannae

Invested

$192.6

Value

$271.11

PnL

+$69.63

Record

53%

16112-14276 (30388)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$672.17

Value

$215.9

PnL

-$456.27

Record

54%

57141-49402 (106543)

0xheavy888

Invested

$130

Value

$181.52

PnL

+$50.59

Record

55%

7313-5881 (13194)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$93.2

Value

$102.27

PnL

+$2.72

Record

48%

8937-9552 (18489)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.04

Value

$56.44

PnL

-$16.6

Record

49%

13009-13568 (26577)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.58

Value

$47.65

PnL

-$17.93

Record

50%

33838-33423 (67261)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37

Value

$24.97

PnL

-$12.03

Record

61%

13791-8664 (22455)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.9

Value

$11.37

PnL

-$4.53

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$1.63

Record

58%

18782-13843 (32625)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.28

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$6.75

Record

62%

1191-722 (1913)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.05

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$2.2

Record

54%

6424-5409 (11833)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.