Will FC Utrecht vs. NEC end in a draw?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 73¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$57.11

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 72.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,510

Combined PnL-$53.93

Yes3 traders

Total Value$182.89

Total Shares760

Combined PnL-$3.17

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 76¢	$901.12	$886.55	-$14.56	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
GC GC-P	Noavg 75.4¢	$611.13	$616.13	+$5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
NM NM-P	Noavg 75.4¢	$583.42	$561.32	-$22.1	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 76¢	$481.36	$459.19	-$22.17	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$1.1K	$200	+$0	56% 195-151 (346)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$100	$153	+$53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$100	$47	-$53
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 24.5¢	$182.64	$178.91	-$3.73	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 75¢	$36.9	$37.64	+$0.74	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
BI biying99999<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$29.43	$29.63	+$0.19	47% 150-168 (318)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 75.3¢	$22.26	$21.43	-$0.83	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$8.67	$8.38	-$0.28	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.75	$3.83	+$0.08	52% 9497-8605 (18102)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$2.93	$3.35	+$0.43	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$0.5	$0.63	+$0.13	50% 48547-48163 (96710)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$901.12

Value

$886.55

PnL

-$14.56

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

GC-P

Invested

$611.13

Value

$616.13

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

NM-P

Invested

$583.42

Value

$561.32

PnL

-$22.1

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

LightParadox

Invested

$481.36

Value

$459.19

PnL

-$22.17

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,052

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Both legs:

Invested

$182.64

Value

$178.91

PnL

-$3.73

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$36.9

Value

$37.64

PnL

+$0.74

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

biying99999<$100

Invested

$29.43

Value

$29.63

PnL

+$0.19

Record

47%

150-168 (318)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$22.26

Value

$21.43

PnL

-$0.83

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$8.67

Value

$8.38

PnL

-$0.28

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.83

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.93

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.43

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.