Telstar 1963 vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 5.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 61¢ · $154 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$154.27
$3.66
Research grade
NeutralOver at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $91.5 | $91.5 | +$0 | 76% 4144-1304 (5448) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $58.5 | $58.5 | +$0 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 9¢ | $0.45 | $3.05 | +$3.6 | 52% 7503-6793 (14296) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $1.16 | $1.22 | +$0.06 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$91.5
Value
$91.5
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
4144-1304 (5448)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$58.5
Value
$58.5
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$3.6
Record
52%
7503-6793 (14296)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.16
Value
$1.22
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.