Telstar 1963 vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 4.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$1.1K
-$541.58
71.3¢ → 100¢
+40% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 88¢ | $669.69 | $658.27 | -$11.42 | 50% 33839-33425 (67264) |
RO Rocky31 | Overavg 89¢ | $133.5 | $149.25 | +$15.75 | 74% 1680-593 (2273) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 69.3¢ | $689.93 | $134.33 | -$555.6 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 21¢ | $63 | $93 | -$4.5 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 40.7¢ | $50.28 | $77.83 | +$27.55 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $7.81 | $15.95 | +$1.28 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 21¢ | $0.45 | $1.55 | +$1.1 | 52% 7499-6786 (14285) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 11¢ | $16.5 | $0.75 | -$15.75 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
Invested
$669.69
Value
$658.27
PnL
-$11.42
Record
50%
33839-33425 (67264)
Invested
$133.5
Value
$149.25
PnL
+$15.75
Record
74%
1680-593 (2273)
Invested
$689.93
Value
$134.33
PnL
-$555.6
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$63
Value
$93
PnL
-$4.5
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$50.28
Value
$77.83
PnL
+$27.55
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.81
Value
$15.95
PnL
+$1.28
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$1.1
Record
52%
7499-6786 (14285)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$16.5
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$15.75
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.