Telstar 1963 vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 60¢ · $338 held · ends Nov 1

Over60¢Under40¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$338.03

Combined PnL

-$9.98

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 60¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$328.26

Total Shares548

Combined PnL-$10.22

Under2 traders

Total Value$9.76

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$0.24

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Overavg 61.5¢	$246	$238	-$8	55% 7313-5881 (13194)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 61¢	$90.27	$90.27	-$2.22	57% 29224-21607 (50831)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$6	$6.15	+$0.15	50% 33838-33423 (67261)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$3.52	$3.61	+$0.09	53% 5597-5025 (10622)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$246

Value

$238

PnL

-$8

Record

55%

7313-5881 (13194)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$90.27

Value

$90.27

PnL

-$2.22

Record

57%

29224-21607 (50831)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

33838-33423 (67261)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.