Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-11-01?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 58¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 67%
2 arb excluded
$2.5K
$34.13
67.5¢ → 58¢
-14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Yesavg 70¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | -$276.07 | 57% 1814-1366 (3180) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 30.5¢ | $318.6 | $455.16 | +$136.57 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 20.5¢ | $212.44 | $396.85 | +$184.42 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 46.9¢ | $217.42 | $362.72 | +$145.3 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46.9¢ | $192.85 | $256.83 | +$137.94 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 34.9¢ | $98.53 | $105.9 | +$7.36 | |
FO foooool | Yesavg 45.3¢ | $98.47 | $115.27 | +$16.8 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 poshposh | Yesavg 78¢ | $117 | $90 | -$27 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
RO Rocky31ARB<$100 | Yesavg 59.3¢ | $52.53 | $51 | +$38.2 | 74% 1680-593 (2273) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 59.3¢ | $30.24 | $30.86 | +$11.33 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 22¢ | $11.22 | $20.15 | +$26.88 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $22.81 | $18.81 | -$4 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $5.67 | $13.64 | -$0.35 | 53% 16115-14278 (30393) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $4.25 | $5.75 | +$1.5 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $1.6 | $3.85 | +$2.28 | 52% 7499-6786 (14285) |
oieshfn345Invested
$1,286.38
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$276.07
Record
57%
1814-1366 (3180)
RN1CTRInvested
$318.6
Value
$455.16
PnL
+$136.57
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Invested
$212.44
Value
$396.85
PnL
+$184.42
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$217.42
Value
$362.72
PnL
+$145.3
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Both legs:
Invested
$98.47
Value
$115.27
PnL
+$16.8
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
poshposhInvested
$117
Value
$90
PnL
-$27
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$52.53
Value
$51
PnL
+$38.2
Record
74%
1680-593 (2273)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$22.81
Value
$18.81
PnL
-$4
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$13.64
PnL
-$0.35
Record
53%
16115-14278 (30393)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$1.5
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$3.85
PnL
+$2.28
Record
52%
7499-6786 (14285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.