Telstar 1963 vs. FC Utrecht: Both Teams to Score
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 100¢ · $800 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$799.56
$84.58
62.5¢ → 100¢
+60% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 62.7¢ | $501.99 | $672 | +$170 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $49.98 | $67.47 | +$17.49 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $46.36 | $59.61 | -$0.37 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 36.6¢ | $103.03 | $0.48 | -$102.54 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
0xheavy888Invested
$501.99
Value
$672
PnL
+$170
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
Invested
$49.98
Value
$67.47
PnL
+$17.49
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$46.36
Value
$59.61
PnL
-$0.37
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$103.03
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$102.54
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.