Will Willem II Tilburg win on 2026-10-31?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $994 held · ends Oct 31

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$994.24

Combined PnL

$1.56

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 97¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$993.84

Total Shares1,022

Combined PnL+$1.52

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.4

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$0.04

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 96.9¢	$781.18	$782.22	+$1.04	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
HRTrading	Noavg 96.6¢	$150.72	$151.12	+$0.39	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$31.81	$31.83	+$0.02	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$28.6	$28.67	+$0.07	53% 15954-14130 (30084)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.36	$0.4	+$0.04	38% 417-667 (1084)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$781.18

Value

$782.22

PnL

+$1.04

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

HRTrading

Invested

$150.72

Value

$151.12

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.81

Value

$31.83

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$28.6

Value

$28.67

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

15954-14130 (30084)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.04

Record

38%

417-667 (1084)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.