Will PSV win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 92¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$11.3K
$41.63
91¢ → 91.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Yesavg 91¢ | $10.3K | $10.3K | +$56.4 | 49% 236-246 (482) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 90¢ | $673.74 | $496.87 | +$12.26 | 58% 41850-30387 (72237) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 9¢ | $484.22 | $457.32 | -$26.9 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 91¢ | $53.69 | $53.98 | +$0.29 | 58% 28670-21162 (49832) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 91¢ | $17.13 | $16.71 | -$0.42 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
Invested
$10,265.42
Value
$10.3K
PnL
+$56.4
Record
49%
236-246 (482)
VeryLucky888Invested
$673.74
Value
$496.87
PnL
+$12.26
Record
58%
41850-30387 (72237)
Invested
$484.22
Value
$457.32
PnL
-$26.9
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
Invested
$53.69
Value
$53.98
PnL
+$0.29
Record
58%
28670-21162 (49832)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.13
Value
$16.71
PnL
-$0.42
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.