Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (73%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SC Heerenveen vs. NEC: O/U 4.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 27¢ · $263 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 100%
$262.8
-$6.68
28.6¢ → 27¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 29.3¢ | $132 | $121.5 | -$10.5 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $56 | $60 | +$4 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $56 | $54 | -$2 | 54% 4883-4114 (8997) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $25.48 | $27.3 | +$1.82 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$132
Value
$121.5
PnL
-$10.5
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$56
Value
$60
PnL
+$4
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$56
Value
$54
PnL
-$2
Record
54%
4883-4114 (8997)
Invested
$25.48
Value
$27.3
PnL
+$1.82
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.