Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 14 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-10-31?

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 42¢ · $57K held · ended Oct 31

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$57.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 41.5¢

-4% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 18 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$25.0K

Total Shares44,568

Combined PnL-$197.89

Yes14 traders

Total Value$28.1K

Total Shares65,421

Combined PnL-$813.02

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 56¢	$13.7K	$13.7K	+$1.88	47% 148-164 (312)
Nooserac	Noavg 57¢	$11.4K	$11.2K	-$200	52% 5777-5366 (11143)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 43.1¢	$6.3K	$5.7K	-$515.74	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 43.8¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$24.8	49% 238-251 (489)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$5.0K	$4.6K	-$409.95	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 43.5¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$95.63	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.5¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$202.53
└ No leg	Noavg 56.2¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$106.9
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 43.5¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$48.67	53% 15968-14143 (30111)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 43¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$13.45	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	53% 5636-4973 (10609)
KK kkpay19888CTR	Yesavg 43¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$40	51% 532-514 (1046)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Yesavg 43¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$37.73	53% 1134-991 (2125)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 43.3¢	$566.48	$523.91	-$28.44	58% 41980-30479 (72459)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 43.5¢	$227.45	$231.2	+$2.61	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.1¢	$55.15	$55.81	+$0.66	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 56¢	$24.92	$25.14	+$0.22	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.4	-$0.1	48% 2404-2633 (5037)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.4	+$0	51% 1453-1400 (2853)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.8	+$0	54% 6294-5328 (11622)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$1.85	$2.05	+$0.2	58% 18669-13724 (32393)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$13,728.73

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$1.88

Record

47%

148-164 (312)

Nooserac

Invested

$11,399.96

Value

$11.2K

PnL

-$200

Record

52%

5777-5366 (11143)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,250.32

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$515.74

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,249.85

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$24.8

Record

49%

238-251 (489)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,036.59

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$409.95

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,072.74

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$95.63

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

Both legs:

Yes$2,50743.5¢-$202.53

No$1,565.7456.2¢+$106.9

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,815.37

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$48.67

Record

53%

15968-14143 (30111)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,587.69

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$13.45

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,760

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5636-4973 (10609)

kkpay19888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,720

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$40

Record

51%

532-514 (1046)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,622.58

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$37.73

Record

53%

1134-991 (2125)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$566.48

Value

$523.91

PnL

-$28.44

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$227.45

Value

$231.2

PnL

+$2.61

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.15

Value

$55.81

PnL

+$0.66

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

foooool<$100

Invested

$24.92

Value

$25.14

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1453-1400 (2853)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6294-5328 (11622)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

18669-13724 (32393)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 18 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.