FC Groningen vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 5.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 93¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$3.7K
$414.55
64.8¢ → 93¢
+44% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 65.7¢ | $2.7K | $3.1K | +$399.42 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 33¢ | $508.97 | $510.77 | +$1.8 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
 RN1 | Underavg 48.1¢ | $112.69 | $118.32 | +$5.63 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $2.1 | $9.8 | +$7.7 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $8.7 | $8.7 | +$0 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $4.35 | +$0 | 52% 7504-6793 (14297) |
Invested
$2,669.89
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$399.42
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$508.97
Value
$510.77
PnL
+$1.8
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
RN1Invested
$112.69
Value
$118.32
PnL
+$5.63
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$7.7
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$8.7
Value
$8.7
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$4.35
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
7504-6793 (14297)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.