FC Groningen vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 4.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 63¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
1 arb excluded
$7.4K
$564.79
50.6¢ → 62.5¢
+24% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 50¢ | $2.9K | $3.1K | +$448.21 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
 RN1 | Underavg 48.7¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$102.13 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 45.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$149.81 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.2¢ | $772.06 | $981.86 | +$209.79 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46.6¢ | $685.35 | $625.37 | -$59.98 | |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 74.8¢ | $370.87 | $369.35 | -$1.52 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $25.83 | $29.95 | +$4.12 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 45.8¢ | $21.81 | $29.89 | +$8.08 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $6.87 | $10.65 | +$3.78 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
Invested
$2,871.74
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$448.21
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
RN1Invested
$2,057.03
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$102.13
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$1,457.41
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$149.81
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Both legs:
0xheavy888Invested
$370.87
Value
$369.35
PnL
-$1.52
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$25.83
Value
$29.95
PnL
+$4.12
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$21.81
Value
$29.89
PnL
+$8.08
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$6.87
Value
$10.65
PnL
+$3.78
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.