FC Groningen vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 3.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $63 held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$63.4

Combined PnL

-$11.39

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$35.5

Total Shares37

Combined PnL+$13.37

Under3 traders

Total Value$27.9

Total Shares111

Combined PnL-$24.76

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 58¢	$17.54	$30.22	+$12.68	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$68	$27.88	-$9.52	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$3.25	-$0.03	52% 7504-6793 (14297)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 65¢	$1.32	$2.03	+$0.71	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$12.6	$0.02	-$12.58	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$2.66	$0.01	-$2.65	49% 13022-13588 (26610)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$17.54

Value

$30.22

PnL

+$12.68

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$68

Value

$27.88

PnL

-$9.52

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

7504-6793 (14297)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$1.32

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.71

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.6

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$12.58

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.66

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.65

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.