Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-11-01?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$55.4

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 84¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$470.57

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$37.73

Yes3 traders

Total Value$18.54

Total Shares155

Combined PnL-$17.67

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$553.74	$516.42	-$37.32	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.1¢	$330.27	$352.7	+$22.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.2¢	$223.47	$163.72	-$59.75
oieshfn345	Noavg 81.8¢	$290.52	$262.37	-$28.15	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
RN1	Noavg 89.7¢	$124.59	$117.33	-$7.26	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 85¢	$45.64	$42.23	-$3.41	50% 19451-19817 (39268)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 76.8¢	$22.56	$22.9	+$0.33	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$16.14	$16.97	+$0.83	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$29.1	$13.23	-$15.87	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 73¢	$8.85	$8.78	-$0.07	58% 18784-13847 (32631)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.7¢	$6.51	$4.59	-$1.91	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.59	$0.71	+$0.12	50% 33863-33445 (67308)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$553.74

Value

$516.42

PnL

-$37.32

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

Both legs:

No$330.2779.1¢+$22.43

Yes$223.4721.2¢-$59.75

oieshfn345

Invested

$290.52

Value

$262.37

PnL

-$28.15

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

RN1

Invested

$124.59

Value

$117.33

PnL

-$7.26

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$45.64

Value

$42.23

PnL

-$3.41

Record

50%

19451-19817 (39268)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$22.56

Value

$22.9

PnL

+$0.33

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$16.14

Value

$16.97

PnL

+$0.83

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.1

Value

$13.23

PnL

-$15.87

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

$8.78

PnL

-$0.07

Record

58%

18784-13847 (32631)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.51

Value

$4.59

PnL

-$1.91

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.