Will FC Groningen win on 2026-11-01?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 80¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1

Yes20¢No80¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$521.42

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 80¢

+51% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,638

Combined PnL+$527.04

Yes3 traders

Total Value$874.21

Total Shares1,899

Combined PnL-$5.62

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$178.63	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
└ No leg	Noavg 56.5¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$304.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.9¢	$1.1K	$585.34	-$483.17
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 44.3¢	$826	$1.2K	+$407.73	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 62.2¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$122.06	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
OL OldZzCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$851	$841.75	-$9.25	47% 103-118 (221)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 36.5¢	$724.6	$782.1	+$57.5	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
└ No leg	Noavg 46.8¢	$271.98	$403.59	+$131.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.5¢	$452.62	$378.51	-$74.12
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 58¢	$72.4	$73.03	+$0.62	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 46¢	$22.54	$27.69	+$5.15	59% 30677-21391 (52068)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$20.63	$23.81	+$3.18	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 43.1¢	$24.1	$15.1	-$9	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 54¢	$13.23	$14.21	+$0.98	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$8.2	$8.65	+$0.45	58% 18784-13847 (32631)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 50.4¢	$4.35	$5.11	+$0.76	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.6	$1.35	-$1.25	48% 8966-9599 (18565)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$2,259.02

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$178.63

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

Both legs:

No$1,190.5156.5¢+$304.54

Yes$1,068.5152.9¢-$483.17

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$826

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$407.73

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,035.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$122.06

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

OldZzCTR

Yes

Invested

$851

Value

$841.75

PnL

-$9.25

Record

47%

103-118 (221)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$724.6

Value

$782.1

PnL

+$57.5

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

Both legs:

No$271.9846.8¢+$131.61

Yes$452.6236.5¢-$74.12

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$72.4

Value

$73.03

PnL

+$0.62

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$22.54

Value

$27.69

PnL

+$5.15

Record

59%

30677-21391 (52068)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.63

Value

$23.81

PnL

+$3.18

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$24.1

Value

$15.1

PnL

-$9

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$13.23

Value

$14.21

PnL

+$0.98

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

18784-13847 (32631)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.76

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$1.25

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.