Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC Groningen vs. Sparta Rotterdam end in a draw?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 37¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$210.27
41¢ → 36.5¢
-11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 48.7¢ | $740.67 | $678.21 | -$62.46 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.7¢ | $398.43 | $462.45 | +$64.02 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69¢ | $342.24 | $215.76 | -$126.48 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 38¢ | $382.12 | $437.43 | +$55.31 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
 oieshfn345 | Yesavg 31¢ | $215.89 | $362.05 | +$146.15 | 57% 1817-1366 (3183) |
LI Lilybaeum | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $93.72 | $109.59 | +$15.87 | 61% 13793-8671 (22464) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 72.2¢ | $44.93 | $36.19 | -$8.74 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $18.24 | $18.24 | -$0 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $13.79 | $15.12 | +$1.34 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $7.6 | $6.71 | +$0.11 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $1.1 | $1.33 | +$0.23 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$740.67
Value
$678.21
PnL
-$62.46
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Both legs:
Invested
$382.12
Value
$437.43
PnL
+$55.31
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
oieshfn345Invested
$215.89
Value
$362.05
PnL
+$146.15
Record
57%
1817-1366 (3183)
Invested
$93.72
Value
$109.59
PnL
+$15.87
Record
61%
13793-8671 (22464)
Invested
$44.93
Value
$36.19
PnL
-$8.74
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
Invested
$18.24
Value
$18.24
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
RN1<$100Invested
$13.79
Value
$15.12
PnL
+$1.34
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$7.6
Value
$6.71
PnL
+$0.11
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.33
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.