Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 80¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$3.9K
$1.2K
44.4¢ → 79.5¢
+79% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 44.2¢ | $1.7K | $3.0K | +$1.3K | 49% 19169-19561 (38730) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 52.4¢ | $699.9 | $453.33 | -$246.58 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.4¢ | $568.95 | $228.18 | -$340.78 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.9¢ | $130.95 | $225.15 | +$94.2 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 46.1¢ | $175.74 | $246.2 | +$70.46 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 56¢ | $336 | $126 | -$210 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $50.15 | $90.06 | +$39.91 | 39% 419-667 (1086) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 41.5¢ | $49.59 | $25.1 | -$24.5 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $31.92 | $11.97 | -$19.95 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
Invested
$1,664.81
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
49%
19169-19561 (38730)
Invested
$699.9
Value
$453.33
PnL
-$246.58
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Both legs:
Invested
$175.74
Value
$246.2
PnL
+$70.46
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$336
Value
$126
PnL
-$210
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$50.15
Value
$90.06
PnL
+$39.91
Record
39%
419-667 (1086)
Invested
$49.59
Value
$25.1
PnL
-$24.5
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$31.92
Value
$11.97
PnL
-$19.95
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.