Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$555.99

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 75.5¢

+54% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,441

Combined PnL+$463.13

Over3 traders

Total Value$266.38

Total Shares601

Combined PnL+$92.86

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 48.2¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$288.76	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 30.5¢	$128.46	$300.53	+$172.08	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
RN1CTR	Overavg 25.1¢	$164.98	$257.88	+$92.9	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
HRTrading	Underavg 63.8¢	$170.23	$169	-$1.23	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 73¢	$156.81	$157.89	+$1.07	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 62.7¢	$142.24	$157.61	+$15.36	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.6¢	$67.67	$90.37	+$22.7
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.7¢	$74.57	$67.24	-$7.34
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Underavg 54¢	$51.98	$47.23	-$4.75	62% 13708-8572 (22280)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 49.8¢	$12.99	$20.2	+$7.21	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Overavg 78¢	$4.77	$4.68	-$0.09	93% 2993-242 (3235)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 76¢	$3.8	$3.83	+$0.05	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,688.13

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$288.76

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$128.46

Value

$300.53

PnL

+$172.08

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$164.98

Value

$257.88

PnL

+$92.9

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$170.23

Value

$169

PnL

-$1.23

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$156.81

Value

$157.89

PnL

+$1.07

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$142.24

Value

$157.61

PnL

+$15.36

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Both legs:

Over$67.6732.6¢+$22.7

Under$74.5762.7¢-$7.34

Lilybaeum<$100

Under

Invested

$51.98

Value

$47.23

PnL

-$4.75

Record

62%

13708-8572 (22280)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$12.99

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$7.21

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$0.09

Record

93%

2993-242 (3235)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.83

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.