Spread: Feyenoord Rotterdam (-2.5)

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Fortuna Sittard (86%) · Fortuna Sittard at 79¢ · $39K held · ended Oct 31

Feyenoord Rotterdam21¢Fortuna Sittard79¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fortuna Sittard

Consensus Traders

Fortuna Sittard 86%

Total Value

$38.8K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 79¢

+48% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralFortuna Sittard at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fortuna Sittard

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Feyenoord Rotterdam21%

Fortuna Sittard79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fortuna Sittard12 traders

Total Value$34.3K

Total Shares44,218

Combined PnL+$8.3K

Feyenoord Rotterdam2 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares20,006

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Fortuna Sittard — 86%Feyenoord Rotterdam — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Fortuna Sittard. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFortuna Sittard 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrFortuna Sittard 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedFortuna Sittard 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Fortuna Sittard 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZH zhuz632	Fortuna Sittardavg 53¢	$8.2K	$12.0K	+$3.8K	51% 243-235 (478)
UP UpTheBlues	Fortuna Sittardavg 53.4¢	$6.7K	$9.7K	+$3.0K	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
NooseracCTR	Feyenoord Rotterdamavg 46¢	$9.2K	$4.5K	$-4.7K	52% 5777-5366 (11143)
GO GoalLineGhost	Fortuna Sittardavg 54¢	$2.9K	$4.1K	-$82.19	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
LU LuckyLoo	Fortuna Sittardavg 53.1¢	$2.0K	$2.9K	-$23.06	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
HO Hongweiqian	Fortuna Sittardavg 53¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$693.4	49% 240-251 (491)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Fortuna Sittardavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$490	53% 5632-4972 (10604)
VeryLucky888	Fortuna Sittardavg 53.5¢	$811.89	$947.85	+$294.28	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
HRTrading	Fortuna Sittardavg 53.6¢	$220.66	$316.3	+$95.64	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
0xheavy888	Fortuna Sittardavg 53¢	$212	$310	-$2	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
NA NatoAlfista	Fortuna Sittardavg 53¢	$113.42	$165.85	+$52.43	50% 3872-3828 (7700)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Fortuna Sittardavg 54¢	$41.04	$58.9	+$17.86	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Fortuna Sittardavg 54¢	$16.2	$23.25	+$7.05	39% 419-667 (1086)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Feyenoord Rotterdamavg 42¢	$2.39	$1.28	-$1.11	49% 7982-8322 (16304)

zhuz632

Fortuna Sittard

Invested

$8,209.7

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

51%

243-235 (478)

UpTheBlues

Fortuna Sittard

Invested

$6,662.59

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

NooseracCTR

Feyenoord Rotterdam

Invested

$9,199.95

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

52%

5777-5366 (11143)

GoalLineGhost

Fortuna Sittard

Invested

$2,890.59

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$82.19

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

LuckyLoo

Fortuna Sittard

Invested

$1,986.04

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$23.06

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Hongweiqian

Fortuna Sittard

Invested

$1,500

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$693.4

Record

49%

240-251 (491)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Fortuna Sittard

Invested

$1,060

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$490

Record

53%

5632-4972 (10604)

VeryLucky888

Fortuna Sittard

Invested

$811.89

Value

$947.85

PnL

+$294.28

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

HRTrading

Fortuna Sittard

Invested

$220.66

Value

$316.3

PnL

+$95.64

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

0xheavy888

Fortuna Sittard

Invested

$212

Value

$310

PnL

-$2

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

NatoAlfista

Fortuna Sittard

Invested

$113.42

Value

$165.85

PnL

+$52.43

Record

50%

3872-3828 (7700)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Fortuna Sittard

Invested

$41.04

Value

$58.9

PnL

+$17.86

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

Oddstorm<$100

Fortuna Sittard

Invested

$16.2

Value

$23.25

PnL

+$7.05

Record

39%

419-667 (1086)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Feyenoord Rotterdam

Invested

$2.39

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$1.11

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

Research grade

NeutralFortuna Sittard at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fortuna Sittard

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Fortuna Sittard. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFortuna Sittard 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrFortuna Sittard 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedFortuna Sittard 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Fortuna Sittard 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fortuna Sittard wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.