Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-10-31?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$207.08

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 99¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares8,755

Combined PnL-$232.68

Yes5 traders

Total Value$80.52

Total Shares1,180

Combined PnL+$25.6

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 94¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$60	53% 5632-4972 (10604)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 98.7¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$191.8	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 93.9¢	$709.1	$704.57	-$4.53	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 93.9¢	$645.52	$637.55	+$30.03	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
CA Cannae	Noavg 94¢	$361.85	$358.37	-$3.48	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
AR ARocky33	Noavg 95¢	$237.5	$231.25	-$6.25	76% 4051-1277 (5328)
oieshfn345	Noavg 92¢	$177.99	$180.89	+$2.9	57% 1729-1293 (3022)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 93¢	$102.55	$103.3	+$0.75	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$26.85	$50.34	+$23.49	49% 19169-19561 (38730)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 94¢	$31.96	$33.49	-$0.51	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$19.25	$20.81	+$1.56	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
RN1<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$14.97	$15.18	+$0.21	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$6.96	$6.46	-$0.5	53% 725-641 (1366)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.25	$2.34	+$1.09	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.6	$0.55	-$0.05	62% 13708-8572 (22280)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$3,760

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$60

Record

53%

5632-4972 (10604)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,607.49

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$191.8

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

SnakeBall

Invested

$709.1

Value

$704.57

PnL

-$4.53

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$645.52

Value

$637.55

PnL

+$30.03

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

Cannae

Invested

$361.85

Value

$358.37

PnL

-$3.48

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

ARocky33

Invested

$237.5

Value

$231.25

PnL

-$6.25

Record

76%

4051-1277 (5328)

oieshfn345

Invested

$177.99

Value

$180.89

PnL

+$2.9

Record

57%

1729-1293 (3022)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$102.55

Value

$103.3

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.85

Value

$50.34

PnL

+$23.49

Record

49%

19169-19561 (38730)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.96

Value

$33.49

PnL

-$0.51

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.25

Value

$20.81

PnL

+$1.56

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

RN1<$100

Invested

$14.97

Value

$15.18

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.96

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

725-641 (1366)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$1.09

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

62%

13708-8572 (22280)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.