Feyenoord Rotterdam leading at halftime?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.4K
-$478.6
51.8¢ → 100¢
+93% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 49.6¢ | $1.1K | $726.92 | -$334.45 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 48.1¢ | $616.4 | $427.88 | -$188.52 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 69.1¢ | $175.32 | $249.88 | +$74.56 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $4.65 | $3.2 | -$1.45 | 85% 5320-920 (6240) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.6¢ | $28.79 | $0.05 | -$28.74 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
Invested
$1,061.37
Value
$726.92
PnL
-$334.45
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
RN1CTRInvested
$616.4
Value
$427.88
PnL
-$188.52
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$175.32
Value
$249.88
PnL
+$74.56
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$4.65
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$1.45
Record
85%
5320-920 (6240)
Invested
$28.79
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$28.74
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.