Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1st Half O/U 0.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
$4.2K
$1.1K
39.5¢ → 100¢
+153% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 39.4¢ | $1.4K | $3.6K | +$2.2K | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 64.3¢ | $1.5K | $328.54 | $-1.1K | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Overavg 13.4¢ | $67.94 | $117.42 | +$49.47 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 74.6¢ | $68.15 | $76.3 | +$8.15 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 49.3¢ | $2.34 | $4.75 | +$2.41 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Underavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $2.8 | -$1.7 | 85% 5320-920 (6240) |
Invested
$1,437.02
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,457.33
Value
$328.54
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$67.94
Value
$117.42
PnL
+$49.47
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
Invested
$68.15
Value
$76.3
PnL
+$8.15
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.34
Value
$4.75
PnL
+$2.41
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$1.7
Record
85%
5320-920 (6240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.