Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-10-31?

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (65%) · Yes at 92¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 31

Yes92¢No8¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 91.5¢

+14% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares11,279

Combined PnL-$77.75

No6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares19,116

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Yes — 65%No — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU sugar-super	Yesavg 77¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$100	52% 373-343 (716)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 78.1¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$255.93	57% 1729-1293 (3022)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 22.7¢	$4.1K	$1.8K	$-2.3K	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
RN1	Yesavg 79¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$62.46	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
GR graziek99	Yesavg 92¢	$1,000	$989.13	-$10.87	88% 401-56 (457)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 84¢	$869.55	$746.75	-$123.97	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 84¢	$599.92	$506.93	+$3	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 74.4¢	$240.51	$226.26	-$14.25	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74.4¢	$190.6	$175.54	-$15.06
└ No leg	Noavg 31¢	$49.91	$50.72	+$0.81
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 83.8¢	$176.78	$183.53	-$33.33	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 20.2¢	$351.88	$156.49	-$195.39	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Noavg 26.7¢	$171.96	$98.36	-$73.61	62% 13708-8572 (22280)
└ No leg	Noavg 26.7¢	$134.41	$52.94	-$81.47
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74¢	$37.56	$45.42	+$7.87
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$27.53	$36.31	+$8.78	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$16.44	$12.13	-$4.3	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 83.5¢	$8.35	$6.9	-$1.45	54% 6286-5324 (11610)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$3.3	$5.03	+$1.73	58% 18665-13716 (32381)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.2	-$0.13	59% 59-41 (100)
HY hydra1248<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$1.41	$1.24	-$0.17	— 1-0 (1)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$0.92	$1.17	+$0.25	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$0.57	$0.68	+$0.11	49% 12639-13031 (25670)

sugar-super

Yes

Invested

$3,080

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$100

Record

52%

373-343 (716)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$2,378.29

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$255.93

Record

57%

1729-1293 (3022)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$4,054.38

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,752.61

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$62.46

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

graziek99

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$989.13

PnL

-$10.87

Record

88%

401-56 (457)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$869.55

Value

$746.75

PnL

-$123.97

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$599.92

Value

$506.93

PnL

+$3

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$240.51

Value

$226.26

PnL

-$14.25

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Both legs:

Yes$190.674.4¢-$15.06

No$49.9131¢+$0.81

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$176.78

Value

$183.53

PnL

-$33.33

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$351.88

Value

$156.49

PnL

-$195.39

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Invested

$171.96

Value

$98.36

PnL

-$73.61

Record

62%

13708-8572 (22280)

Both legs:

No$134.4126.7¢-$81.47

Yes$37.5674¢+$7.87

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$27.53

Value

$36.31

PnL

+$8.78

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.44

Value

$12.13

PnL

-$4.3

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.35

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$1.45

Record

54%

6286-5324 (11610)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$1.73

Record

58%

18665-13716 (32381)

PLACEYOURBETS123<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.13

Record

59%

59-41 (100)

hydra1248<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.17

Record

—

1-0 (1)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$0.92

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.