Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Fortuna Sittard end in a draw?

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$36.57

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 92¢

+4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,986

Combined PnL-$48.52

Yes5 traders

Total Value$211.84

Total Shares2,428

Combined PnL+$11.95

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 89.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$36.5	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$190.94	$202.87	+$11.93	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
HRTrading	Noavg 91.8¢	$171.21	$170.65	-$0.56	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
0xheavy888	Noavg 89¢	$148.71	$135.34	-$13.37	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$98.63	$96.16	-$2.47	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$73.44	$75.6	+$2.58	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
SL slimjoe<$100	Noavg 87¢	$56.83	$58.79	+$0.98	51% 6503-6162 (12665)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$35.1	$31.52	+$1.42	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 79¢	$11.29	$11.36	+$0.07	57% 1729-1293 (3022)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 88¢	$7.34	$7.26	-$0.08	59% 30480-21187 (51667)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$6.25	$6	-$0.25	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.5	+$0.03	48% 2396-2627 (5023)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 89¢	$4.94	$4.33	-$0.61	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$0.95	$1.3	+$0.35	58% 18665-13716 (32381)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.85	$1.1	+$0.25	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$0.9	$0.57	-$0.34	54% 56611-48781 (105392)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,291.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$36.5

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$190.94

Value

$202.87

PnL

+$11.93

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

HRTrading

Invested

$171.21

Value

$170.65

PnL

-$0.56

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

0xheavy888

Invested

$148.71

Value

$135.34

PnL

-$13.37

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

foooool<$100

Invested

$98.63

Value

$96.16

PnL

-$2.47

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$73.44

Value

$75.6

PnL

+$2.58

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

slimjoe<$100

Invested

$56.83

Value

$58.79

PnL

+$0.98

Record

51%

6503-6162 (12665)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$35.1

Value

$31.52

PnL

+$1.42

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$11.29

Value

$11.36

PnL

+$0.07

Record

57%

1729-1293 (3022)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$7.34

Value

$7.26

PnL

-$0.08

Record

59%

30480-21187 (51667)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.25

Value

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.33

PnL

-$0.61

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

18665-13716 (32381)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$0.34

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.