Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC Twente win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 50%
$1.4K
$-1.2K
34.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 86.5¢ | $606.21 | $700.73 | +$93.47 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
RO Rocky31 | Yesavg 82.9¢ | $541.74 | $652.91 | +$111.17 | 74% 1680-593 (2273) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Yesavg 94¢ | $54.37 | $32.87 | -$21.5 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 34.9¢ | $1.2K | $8.86 | $-1.2K | 53% 16115-14278 (30393) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 94¢ | $4.23 | $4.49 | +$0.26 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 34.1¢ | $146.8 | $1 | -$134.7 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $2.03 | $0.04 | -$1.99 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $1.3 | $0.01 | -$1.29 | 58% 18782-13844 (32626) |
Invested
$606.21
Value
$700.73
PnL
+$93.47
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$541.74
Value
$652.91
PnL
+$111.17
Record
74%
1680-593 (2273)
Invested
$54.37
Value
$32.87
PnL
-$21.5
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Invested
$1,238.28
Value
$8.86
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
53%
16115-14278 (30393)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.23
Value
$4.49
PnL
+$0.26
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$146.8
Value
$1
PnL
-$134.7
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.03
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$1.99
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.29
Record
58%
18782-13844 (32626)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.