Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold SBV Excelsior, while the market favors FC Twente (61%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: FC Twente (-2.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold SBV Excelsior (100%) · SBV Excelsior at 39¢ · $180 held · ended Nov 1
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Neutral
SBV Excelsior
3
SBV Excelsior 100%
$180.18
-$93.92
70.9¢ → 39¢
-45% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSBV Excelsior at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors FC Twente 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolCTR | SBV Excelsioravg 77¢ | $215.4 | $128.68 | -$86.72 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | SBV Excelsioravg 54¢ | $57.55 | $50.35 | -$7.2 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | SBV Excelsioravg 46¢ | $1.15 | $1.15 | +$0 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.