Spread: FC Twente (-1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold FC Twente (56%) · FC Twente at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

FC Twente>99¢SBV Excelsior<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Twente

Consensus Traders

FC Twente 56%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$477.05

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 99.5¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Twente at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Twente

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Twente100%

SBV Excelsior1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Twente5 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,396

Combined PnL-$33.05

SBV Excelsior4 traders

Total Value$120.08

Total Shares1,158

Combined PnL-$443.99

FC Twente — 56%SBV Excelsior — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	FC Twenteavg 87.4¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$16.59	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
RN1	FC Twenteavg 98¢	$713.44	$618.8	-$94.64	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
VeryLucky888CTR	SBV Excelsioravg 58¢	$348	$90	-$258	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
AR ARocky33<$100	FC Twenteavg 77.5¢	$65.21	$83.68	+$18.47	76% 4143-1304 (5447)
SN SnakeBall<$100	FC Twenteavg 41¢	$17.39	$42.2	+$24.81	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	SBV Excelsioravg 34¢	$39.1	$17.25	-$21.85	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
poshposhCTR<$100	SBV Excelsioravg 34¢	$14.57	$6.43	-$8.14	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
0xheavy888CTR	SBV Excelsioravg 58¢	$162.4	$6.4	-$156	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
HRTrading<$100	FC Twenteavg 39¢	$3.37	$5.72	+$1.72	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

GoalLineGhost

FC Twente

Invested

$4,488.54

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$16.59

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

RN1

FC Twente

Invested

$713.44

Value

$618.8

PnL

-$94.64

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

VeryLucky888CTR

SBV Excelsior

Invested

$348

Value

$90

PnL

-$258

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

ARocky33<$100

FC Twente

Invested

$65.21

Value

$83.68

PnL

+$18.47

Record

76%

4143-1304 (5447)

SnakeBall<$100

FC Twente

Invested

$17.39

Value

$42.2

PnL

+$24.81

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

SBV Excelsior

Invested

$39.1

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$21.85

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

poshposhCTR<$100

SBV Excelsior

Invested

$14.57

Value

$6.43

PnL

-$8.14

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

0xheavy888CTR

SBV Excelsior

Invested

$162.4

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$156

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

HRTrading<$100

FC Twente

Invested

$3.37

Value

$5.72

PnL

+$1.72

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

NeutralFC Twente at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FC Twente

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Twente wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.