SBV Excelsior vs. FC Twente: 1st Half O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $656 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$656.07
$66.02
89.6¢ → 100¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO Rocky31 | Overavg 89¢ | $386.74 | $434.32 | +$47.58 | 74% 1681-594 (2275) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 77¢ | $90.39 | $99.78 | +$9.39 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 77¢ | $77 | $85 | +$8 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $23.96 | $23.97 | +$0.01 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $11.96 | $12.99 | +$1.03 | 77% 3443-1052 (4495) |
Invested
$386.74
Value
$434.32
PnL
+$47.58
Record
74%
1681-594 (2275)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$90.39
Value
$99.78
PnL
+$9.39
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
Invested
$77
Value
$85
PnL
+$8
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.96
Value
$23.97
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$11.96
Value
$12.99
PnL
+$1.03
Record
77%
3443-1052 (4495)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.