Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SBV Excelsior vs. FC Twente: Both Teams to Score
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 28¢ · $700 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 63%
1 arb excluded
$700.13
-$57.91
58.1¢ → 28.5¢
-51% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 52.4¢ | $228.18 | $292.15 | +$40.43 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 58.6¢ | $189.3 | $132.42 | -$56.88 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Yesavg 41.6¢ | $155.24 | $116.31 | -$38.93 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41.6¢ | $130.7 | $89.6 | -$41.1 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.7¢ | $24.54 | $26.71 | +$2.17 | |
 0xheavy888CTR | Yesavg 59¢ | $134.13 | $80.71 | -$53.43 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $50 | $60 | +$10 | 76% 4143-1304 (5447) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 49.3¢ | $8.57 | $10.43 | +$1.86 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $6.24 | $6.56 | +$0.32 | 55% 8412-6766 (15178) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $1.04 | $0.84 | -$0.2 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $0.72 | $0.71 | -$0.02 | 59% 3428-2336 (5764) |
Invested
$228.18
Value
$292.15
PnL
+$40.43
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$189.3
Value
$132.42
PnL
-$56.88
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$155.24
Value
$116.31
PnL
-$38.93
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Both legs:
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$134.13
Value
$80.71
PnL
-$53.43
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
Invested
$50
Value
$60
PnL
+$10
Record
76%
4143-1304 (5447)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.57
Value
$10.43
PnL
+$1.86
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$6.56
PnL
+$0.32
Record
55%
8412-6766 (15178)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$0.2
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$0.72
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$0.02
Record
59%
3428-2336 (5764)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.