Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$2.1K
$236.9
85.4¢ → 99.6¢
+17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 87¢ | $903.5 | $1.0K | +$131.29 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 99.2¢ | $590.24 | $590.84 | +$0.6 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 63.7¢ | $246.91 | $385.66 | +$138.75 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 58.9¢ | $29.2 | $28.51 | -$0.7 | 53% 15980-14158 (30138) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $42 | $9.75 | -$32.25 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $1.65 | +$0.25 | 58% 18675-13734 (32409) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $1.45 | $1.44 | -$0.01 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $1.06 | $0.03 | -$1.02 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
RN1Invested
$903.5
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$131.29
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
Invested
$590.24
Value
$590.84
PnL
+$0.6
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
Invested
$246.91
Value
$385.66
PnL
+$138.75
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$29.2
Value
$28.51
PnL
-$0.7
Record
53%
15980-14158 (30138)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$42
Value
$9.75
PnL
-$32.25
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$0.25
Record
58%
18675-13734 (32409)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.44
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$1.06
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.02
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.