Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. Go Ahead Eagles end in a draw?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 2.0¢ · $102 held · ended Oct 31

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$102.32

Combined PnL

-$46.69

Smart Money Entry

11.7¢ → 2¢

-83% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$68.84

Total Shares1,037

Combined PnL-$52.33

No2 traders

Total Value$33.48

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$5.64

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$47.98	$46.06	-$1.92	61% 13722-8594 (22316)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 79¢	$24.08	$29.67	+$5.59	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$62.59	$17.09	-$45.5	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$8.4	$4.4	-$4	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.76	$3.81	+$0.05	57% 1746-1303 (3049)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.2	+$0.05	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.05	$0.09	-$0.96	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.98

Value

$46.06

PnL

-$1.92

Record

61%

13722-8594 (22316)

foooool<$100

Invested

$24.08

Value

$29.67

PnL

+$5.59

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.59

Value

$17.09

PnL

-$45.5

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.4

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$4

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

1746-1303 (3049)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.96

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3079.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

3179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.