Will SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (23%) · Yes at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
13
Yes 23%
$1.8K
$41.16
76.9¢ → 97.9¢
+27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Yesavg 80.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$73.12 | 57% 1746-1303 (3049) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $78.21 | $85.26 | +$7.05 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $50 | $80.58 | +$30.58 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $70.5 | $63.75 | -$6.75 | 76% 4073-1287 (5360) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $79.5 | $25.5 | -$54 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $21.6 | $21.63 | +$0.03 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $20.13 | $21.25 | +$1.12 | 53% 15980-14158 (30138) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $16.53 | $18.02 | +$1.49 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.1¢ | $9.98 | $10.54 | +$0.57 | 61% 13722-8594 (22316) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.2¢ | $7.04 | $7.04 | -$0 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 29.5¢ | $16.62 | $6.12 | -$10.5 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.88 | +$0.33 | 58% 18675-13734 (32409) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.8¢ | $2.76 | $0.89 | -$1.87 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
oieshfn345Invested
$1,389.34
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$73.12
Record
57%
1746-1303 (3049)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$78.21
Value
$85.26
PnL
+$7.05
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$50
Value
$80.58
PnL
+$30.58
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$70.5
Value
$63.75
PnL
-$6.75
Record
76%
4073-1287 (5360)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$79.5
Value
$25.5
PnL
-$54
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$21.63
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
Invested
$20.13
Value
$21.25
PnL
+$1.12
Record
53%
15980-14158 (30138)
Invested
$16.53
Value
$18.02
PnL
+$1.49
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$10.54
PnL
+$0.57
Record
61%
13722-8594 (22316)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$7.04
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
Invested
$16.62
Value
$6.12
PnL
-$10.5
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$0.33
Record
58%
18675-13734 (32409)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.76
Value
$0.89
PnL
-$1.87
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.