SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. Go Ahead Eagles: Both Teams to Score
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 52¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 67%
$2.7K
$376.88
68¢ → 52¢
-24% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 31.7¢ | $962.57 | $1.4K | +$420.29 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 68¢ | $782 | $764.75 | -$17.25 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 68.7¢ | $381.24 | $368.91 | -$12.33 | 55% 7136-5731 (12867) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $77.18 | $73.5 | -$3.67 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $45.33 | $44.1 | -$1.23 | 53% 404-355 (759) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $49.68 | $42.84 | -$6.84 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Yesavg 73.7¢ | $25.73 | $24.09 | -$1.64 | 74% 1611-577 (2188) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $4.98 | $4.48 | -$0.5 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 62.2¢ | $3.98 | $4.03 | +$0.05 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
Invested
$962.57
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$420.29
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
VeryLucky888Invested
$782
Value
$764.75
PnL
-$17.25
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
0xheavy888Invested
$381.24
Value
$368.91
PnL
-$12.33
Record
55%
7136-5731 (12867)
RN1<$100Invested
$77.18
Value
$73.5
PnL
-$3.67
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$45.33
Value
$44.1
PnL
-$1.23
Record
53%
404-355 (759)
Invested
$49.68
Value
$42.84
PnL
-$6.84
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$25.73
Value
$24.09
PnL
-$1.64
Record
74%
1611-577 (2188)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.48
PnL
-$0.5
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
Invested
$3.98
Value
$4.03
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.