AFC Ajax vs. AZ: O/U 5.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 98¢ · $645 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$644.67
-$7.52
86.1¢ → 98.4¢
+14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 85.3¢ | $351.25 | $349.94 | -$1.31 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 86¢ | $172 | $170 | -$2 | 55% 7136-5731 (12867) |
FO foooool | Underavg 89¢ | $99.89 | $108.04 | +$8.15 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $7.89 | $9.11 | +$1.21 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $3.49 | $3.91 | +$0.42 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 16.3¢ | $17.67 | $3.68 | -$13.99 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
Invested
$351.25
Value
$349.94
PnL
-$1.31
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
0xheavy888Invested
$172
Value
$170
PnL
-$2
Record
55%
7136-5731 (12867)
Invested
$99.89
Value
$108.04
PnL
+$8.15
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$7.89
Value
$9.11
PnL
+$1.21
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.49
Value
$3.91
PnL
+$0.42
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$17.67
Value
$3.68
PnL
-$13.99
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.